نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
This study aimed to investigate the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index on winter precipitation at coastal stations in southern Iran. Monthly winter precipitation data were collected for three synoptic stations—Bandar Lengeh, Bandar Dayyer, and Bandar Abbas—over a 20-year period (1995–2014). The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) was used as a representative indicator of ENSO, and its seasonal values were compared with the cumulative winter precipitation totals at the selected stations. To examine the relationship between ENSO and precipitation, Pearson correlation analysis was performed, and differences among the El Niño, La Niña, and neutral phases were assessed. The findings showed that the mean precipitation at all three stations was higher during the El Niño phase than during the La Niña phase. The highest mean precipitation was observed at Bandar Dayyer station, while the weakest correlation between precipitation and the ENSO index was recorded at Bandar Abbas station. The strongest correlation was found at Bandar Dayyer station, with a significance level of 0.07. In addition, the greatest precipitation variability at all three stations occurred during the El Niño phase, whereas the likelihood of anomalous events during the La Niña phase was also identified across all stations. The results indicated that the strength and persistence of the relationship between the ENSO index and precipitation were greater in the western part of the study area (Bandar Dayyer station) than along the central and eastern coasts (Bandar Abbas and Bandar Lengeh stations).
کلیدواژهها English