Hydrophysics

Hydrophysics

Using an Ensemble Prediction System Developed for the WRF Model to Predict Surface Wind Over Persian Gulf

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Sarmad Ghader
Daniel Yazegi
Mohsen Soltanpour
Mohammad Hossein Nemati
Abstract
This work is devoted to present the results of an ensemble prediction system developed for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to predict surface wind over the Persian Gulf. To construct the ensemble members a combination of perturbed initial condition (using Monte Carlo method) and model perturbations (using multi physical parameterization schemes) is employed. Here, an ensemble prediction system with 15 members (three physical parameterization schemes and five initial condition perturbations for each one) is used to generate the surface wind and other meteorological field predictions over the Persian Gulf. Assessment of the ensemble mean against the observational in situ and satellite (e.g., ASCAT and QuikSCAT) data indicates promising performance of the ensemble prediction system over the deterministic predictions.
Keywords
ensemble prediction
wind field
WRF model
Persian Gulf

Subjects

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Hydrophysics
Volume 1, Issue 1 - Serial Number 1
October 2015
Pages 41-54

  • Receive Date 10 April 2016
  • Revise Date 21 April 2016
  • Accept Date 29 June 2016